Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap

Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap In Australia Driven By Staff Shortages, Unsustainable Margins, Fragmented Regulation And Runaway Technological Change.

Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap – Australia’s private security industry is heading towards significant growth through 2030, but workforce shortages, unsustainable margins, fragmented regulation and the accelerating pace of technological change threaten the industry’s ability to develop the capability required to meet future demand.

That’s the central finding of Security 2030, a 5-year outlook for Australia’s private security industry from the Security & Intelligence Research Group at Edith Cowan University. The report describes workforce capability as a structural problem rather than a temporary labour shortage.

At the core of the issue is that experienced practitioners are retiring, taking decades of operational knowledge with them, while the industry is not developing the next generation quickly enough to replace this capability.

Researchers argue this is particularly important in security because much operational capability is accumulated through prolonged exposure to risk, incidents and changing threat environments. At the same time, the skills required of incoming practitioners are expanding as physical security becomes more closely integrated with electronic security, data, communications and cybersecurity.

The commercial environment presents another challenge. According to the report, margins in protective security are often too low to sustain the wages, training and technology investment increasingly expected by customers and regulators. It’s fair to say users bear significant responsibility for this issue.

Procurement practices remain part of the problem, with contracts continuing to be awarded heavily on price rather than demonstrated capability and compliance. The report argues this is creating a widening gap between the standard of security customers expect and the capability providers can commercially afford to deliver.

The report’s recommendations include minimum viable margin floors, capability-based prequalification, stronger enforcement and higher award rates, along with measures designed to strengthen professional development across the industry.

Also noted is the fact regulation is struggling to keep pace with the changing security environment, though industry people know this has always been the case. The report also finds security technologies are being introduced faster than regulatory, workforce and professional frameworks can respond.

This gap is becoming more important as AI, biometrics, cloud platforms and connected security systems move deeper into operational environments. Meanwhile, obligations associated with the security of Critical Infrastructure framework are flowing through supply chains, increasing requirements on security providers without necessarily providing the structures needed to support that transition.

Despite these challenges, Security 2030 forecasts considerable underlying industry growth. Australian private security industry revenue is estimated at $A11.22 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $11.82 billion by the end of 2026 before increasing to $14.59 billion by 2030. The number of licensed security personnel is forecast to increase from 170698 to more than 200000, representing growth of around 17.2 per cent.

Electronic security is expected to be among the strongest areas of expansion. Video surveillance is forecast to be the fastest-growing security segment at around 8 per cent CAGR through the period, while monitoring services are expected to grow at around 6 per cent. Guarding and cash-in-transit are forecast to grow more slowly at around 4-5 per cent.

Security system monitoring represents a substantial market with revenue is projected to increase from $1.77 billion in 2025 to $2.37 billion in 2030, representing CAGR of 6.1 per cent.

Technology will also change the nature of the services generating this growth. The report identifies AI-enabled surveillance, cloud-hosted access control, virtual guarding and remote monitoring as technologies increasingly allowing providers to move beyond the traditional sale of security products or guarding hours.

Customers are expected to increasingly purchase continuous security performance, intelligence, governance and assurance, supported by connected technology and remote services.

The report does not predict technology will remove the requirement for security personnel, however. It argues technology will extend the reach and capability of security teams, while human judgement will remain important where security decisions and physical intervention are required.

What emerges is a potentially significant division within the industry. Providers capable of combining people with AI, cloud platforms, remote monitoring and intelligent electronic security systems should be increasingly able to deliver scalable services. Businesses unable to make this transition risk falling behind. The report describes the ability to adopt new technology as a defining success factor for security providers through 2030.

Convergence is another major theme. Critical infrastructure is generating increasing demand for cyber-physical security assurance, while mining and remote operations are experiencing closer convergence between physical security and operational technology.

Within electronic security, the continuing transition from analogue infrastructure towards IP-based systems is being extended by AI-enabled video surveillance and access control. AI and analytics are increasingly able to turn cameras and other sensors into sources of operational intelligence rather than simply recording devices.

Biometrics is part of this transition, although its expansion also illustrates the regulatory challenge facing the industry. The report identifies facial recognition governance as an area where technology adoption is creating additional compliance requirements alongside growing surveillance and access control capabilities.

Among its recommendations is development of a technology adoption maturity framework covering AI, biometrics and data governance, reflecting the report's view that future security capability will depend on governance and professional competence as much as access to technology itself.

The growth opportunities extend well beyond conventional commercial security. Critical infrastructure is expected to generate sustained demand as SOCI and PSPF requirements expand. Government and defence security requirements are also increasing, with AUKUS contributing to higher security expectations extending through contractor and supplier networks.

Mining and resources present another opportunity, particularly in remote operations where physical security, OT, communications and supply-chain risks increasingly intersect.

Retail security is expected to become increasingly intelligence-led as organisations respond to theft, organised retail crime and weapon-related incidents. This is likely to increase demand for AI surveillance and technologies capable of identifying events and behaviours rather than relying exclusively on conventional recording and post-event investigation.

Crowded places and major events represent another substantial area of demand. The report identifies Brisbane 2032 as the largest bounded security demand event between now and 2030, while recent attacks have increased expectations around the protection of crowded places.

And investigations, risk advisory and security governance services are also expected to expand as organisations attempt to understand and comply with increasingly complex regulatory and operational requirements.

One of the less obvious challenges identified by Security 2030 is the industry's continuing difficulty explaining what it does. Private security is still widely perceived as primarily a guarding industry, despite encompassing electronic security, systems integration, risk advisory, investigations, resilience, intelligence and sophisticated converged technologies.

The report argues this limited understanding has practical consequences. It can reduce engagement and investment at executive level and makes it harder for the industry to attract talented people into roles that are becoming progressively more technical and specialised.

Taken together, the findings suggest the Australian security industry is approaching 2030 with strong demand but significant pressure on its ability to service it. Revenue is increasing, surveillance and monitoring are growing strongly, and technologies including AI, cloud access control, biometrics, remote monitoring and virtual guarding are expanding what security systems and providers can deliver.

At the same delicate moment, the industry must replace an ageing pool of highly experienced practitioners, develop new technical skills, improve procurement models, lift margins sufficiently to support investment and training, modernise regulation and establish appropriate governance around rapidly developing technologies.

You find the Security 2030 Report here or read more SEN news here.

“Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap Driven By Staff Shortages, Fragmented Regulation And Runaway Technological Change.”

Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap - Security 2030 Report Warns Of Serious Capability Gap